Oct 14, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 38.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Netanyahu Out by 2026? Live Market Probability
Traders assign a a substantial minority view probability (38.0%) to Benjamin Netanyahu leaving the prime minister's office by Jan 1, 2027. An announcement of resignation or removal before that date is enough to settle the market.
38.0%-1.5 pts 24h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Updated · Volume $124.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | 38.0% | -1.5 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Netanyahu out by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Netanyahu out by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Netanyahu out by end of 2026' outcome carries a a substantial minority view probability of 38.0%, while the remaining five scenarios are all priced as remote possibilities.
Context
Oct 12, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 41.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 5, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 38.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 4, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 41.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 3, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 38.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 30, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 48.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Netanyahu is using Mamdani as a foil in his re-election campaign | Mohamad Bazzi — The Guardian US
Sep 28, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 39.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Jerusalem Daily: Israeli opposition leaders unite to drive out Netanyahu — Al Jazeera
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 47.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 41.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 37.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
The market has ranged from 36.5% to 54.0% over the period tracked. As of 12 min ago, the probability sits at 38.0%. Total trading volume reached $124.6M. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Netanyahu announces his resignation as Prime Minister, steps down, or is removed from the role by Jan 1, 2027. Even if the actual departure occurs after the deadline, an announcement before it is sufficient. The primary resolution source is official information from the Israeli government, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The key formal trigger is the approach of the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. Any credible report of an impending resignation announcement or removal process could shift the price, given the market's reliance on official and consensus reporting.
FAQ
What counts as Netanyahu being 'out'?
The market resolves to 'Yes' if he announces his resignation as Prime Minister, steps down, or is removed from the position by Jan 1, 2027.
Does the resignation have to take effect before the deadline?
No, an announcement before Jan 1, 2027 is sufficient, even if the actual departure happens later.
How is the resolution verified?
The primary source is official information from the Israeli government, but the market may also rely on a consensus of credible news reports.
What happens if there is conflicting reporting?
The market uses a consensus of credible reporting if official information is unclear or unavailable.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice