Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 71.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Odds & Probability
Markets currently price Flávio Bolsonaro's chances of finishing second in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round at 77.0%. That makes him the favored outcome to claim the runner-up slot.
77.0%+1.5 pts 24h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Updated · Volume $7.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 77.0% | +1.5 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 20.3% | -3.1 |
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1.4% | -0.2 |
| Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another person finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Only one candidate besides Bolsonaro attracts notable betting interest: Renan Santos. Markets give him a probability of 20.3%, positioning him as a a substantial minority view. The rest of the field is priced at negligible levels.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 77.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Last dance? Inside Lula’s strategy to win a fourth presidency in Brazil — Al Jazeera
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 85.5% to 78.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Last dance? Inside Lula’s strategy to win a fourth presidency in Brazil — Al Jazeera
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 84.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 64.0% to 75.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 77.5% to 66.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 79.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Brazil's presidential election is set for 4 October 2026. The first round whittles the field down to the top two candidates, with the runner-up potentially advancing to a second round. This market focuses on who secures that second-place finish. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is the market's pick for the number-two spot. Prediction markets currently price his chances at 77.0%, indicating he is the favored outcome. That probability has after trading in a range of 71.0% to 91.5%. Overall volume stands at $7.0M. The market's assessment leaves room for alternative outcomes: a probability of 77.0% signals confidence but also acknowledges that the race is far from settled. The resolution mechanics identify the candidate with the second-highest valid vote count in the first round, with ties broken alphabetically by last name. Should the official result remain unclear by Oct 4, 2026, the contract settles as 'Other'. The field includes several other contenders, but none has attracted comparable support in the betting market. The implied uncertainty underscores that while Bolsonaro is the strong favorite, a surprise remains possible.
FAQ
How does the market determine the second-place finisher?
It resolves to the candidate with the second-highest number of valid votes in the first round, as reported by the Superior Electoral Court. If two are tied, alphabetical order of their last names decides.
When will this market be resolved?
If the official outcome is known, it will resolve shortly after the election; if not by Oct 4, 2026, it settles as 'Other'.
What happens if Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running?
That does not directly affect this market, which concerns Flávio Bolsonaro; however, political dynamics could shift probabilities.
Is Flávio Bolsonaro guaranteed to come second?
No, the market's current probability of 77.0% indicates a strong chance, but it is not a certainty. the favored outcome, there remains a significant chance another candidate takes the spot.
Which other candidates are in the running?
Beyond Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos is priced at 20.3%, reflecting an outside chance. All other candidates are considered distant possibilities.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice