Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5% at 40.0%.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
Updated · Volume $461.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | 40.0% | +3.0 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | 21.0% | -2.5 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | 19.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | 14.4% | +7.8 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? | 3.6% | +2.0 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? | 1.3% | -0.9 |
| Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? | 0.3% | -7.9 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 97.8% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 11 tracked outcomes and $461.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%, is priced at 40.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice