Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10% at 32.5%.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
Updated · Volume $279.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | 32.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? | 18.4% | -0.3 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | 18.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | 6.4% | -0.6 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | 3.0% | -0.5 |
| Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 2.8% | +0.3 |
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 1.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.5% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 79.8% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 11 tracked outcomes and $279.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%, is priced at 32.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice