Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 99.0% — a 84.0-point move over the past day.
Will CDC Issue Level 4 Warning by Dec 31? Market Odds
Markets price a Level 4 warning from the CDC by year-end at 99.0%, making it near-certain. The threshold is any disease listed at "Avoid All Travel" on the CDC's Travel Health Notices page before Dec 31, 2026.
99.0%
Updated · Volume $79.1K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
The "Yes" outcome is near-certain; the market overwhelmingly expects no Level 4 warning before Dec 31, 2026.
Context
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 96.6% — a 81.6-point move over the past day.
The headline probability sits at 99.0%,.,. For a "Yes" resolution, the CDC must publish a Level 4 notice on its Travel Health Notices page — marked "Avoid All Travel" — for at least one moment before Dec 31, 2026. Once posted, even briefly, the condition is met. Confirmation relies primarily on the CDC website, but credible news reports can also settle the market if the page is ambiguous or unavailable. The only formal triggers are an actual Level 4 posting by the CDC, or the passing of the Dec 31, 2026 deadline without one. No other events — such as WHO declarations, disease spread, or political announcements — directly determine the outcome, though they may influence traders’ expectations. The resolution source is definitive: the CDC’s notice page and, secondarily, consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What counts as a Level 4 warning?
The CDC’s Travel Health Notice with the label "Avoid All Travel."
How long does the notice need to be active?
Any duration within the market’s timeframe suffices; a single moment of listing is enough.
What if the CDC issues the warning but removes it before the deadline?
A "Yes" resolution only requires the notice to be listed at some point, even if withdrawn later.
How is the outcome verified?
The primary source is the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page, with credible reporting as a backup.
Does the warning have to be for a specific disease?
No, any disease triggering a Level 4 notice qualifies.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice