Clacton by-election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will someone else win the Clacton by-election at 50.0%.

50.0%

Will someone else win the Clacton by-election?

Updated · Volume $2.1M

48%49%51%52%Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?95.3%+1.1
Will someone else win the Clacton by-election?50.0%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?4.5%
Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul win the Clacton by-election?0.2%
Will Matthew Bensilum win the Clacton by-election?0.1%
Will Tony Mack win the Clacton by-election?0.1%
Will Natasha Osben win the Clacton by-election?0.1%
Will Giles Watling win the Clacton by-election?0.1%
Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election?0.1%

The top 5 outcomes account for 150.1% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $2.1M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will someone else win the Clacton by-election, is priced at 50.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice