Clavicular Sentenced to Prison? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently give a 5.5% chance of a prison sentence for Clavicular, an outcome that is unlikely as of 5 min ago.
Updated · Volume $94.6K
Traders view a prison sentence as unlikely, leaving the complementary outcome of no incarceration with the greater share of probability.
Context
The market has traded within a range that stretches, with a -3.0 pts move over the past day and. Resolution follows a strict binary: the contract settles to 'Yes' if Braden Eric Peters, known as Clavicular, is sentenced to any jail or prison time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any sentencing qualifies, regardless of subsequent appeals. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, and internal employment actions do not count. If all criminal charges are dropped for any reason—dismissal, plea deal without admission of guilt, or any situation where no court judgment is rendered—the market resolves to 'No'. The primary resolution source is official US government or law enforcement information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Any formal sentencing or dropping of charges before then would trigger settlement. The market relies on official sources or credible reporting to determine the outcome.
FAQ
What qualifies as a prison sentence for this market?
Any jail or prison time, however short, for any criminal charge against Clavicular. Appeals or later changes do not void a qualifying sentence.
Does an appeal affect the resolution?
No. The market resolves based on the initial sentencing, regardless of any appeal or subsequent modification.
What happens if all charges are dropped?
If every criminal charge is dropped or dismissed, or if a plea deal results in no court judgment, the market resolves to 'No'. This covers any situation where no sentence is rendered.
Can a civil lawsuit trigger a 'Yes' resolution?
No. Only criminal proceedings that result in a jail or prison sentence count. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, or administrative complaints do not qualify.
What is the primary resolution source?
Official information from the US government or law enforcement is the primary source. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice