Gadi Eizenkot Leads Market for Next Israeli PM at 41.2%

Prediction markets assign a 41.2% probability to Gadi Eizenkot becoming Israel's next prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 34.5%, and no other candidate surpasses 11%. The market has drawn over $26.6 million in total volume and will resolve when a new prime minister is formally sworn in after the next parliamentary election, currently set for October 27, 2026. If an election is called earlier, the market resolves promptly after the subsequent swearing-in; if no prime minister is installed by December 31, 2027, the contract settles as ‘Other’. The remaining probability is spread across more than a dozen contenders, including Naftali Bennett (10.5%), Avigdor Lieberman (3.3%), and Itamar Ben Gvir (1.1%). Yoaz Hendel sits at 0.8%, while a cluster of names such as Gideon Sa’ar, Israel Katz, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and Gilad Erdan all trade at 0.4%. Another group—among them Yossi Cohen, Ayelet Shaked, and Nir Barkat—is priced at 0.3%. Generic placeholders (Person I through Person O) and a catch-all ‘another person’ contract are at 0.0%. The market structure allows traders to express views on individual contenders, and the price spread provides a snapshot of collective expectations. The top two candidates together account for roughly three-quarters of the implied probability, suggesting that traders see the premiership as a two-person race, albeit a close one. The long tail of alternatives, however, points to the fragmentation typical of Israeli politics, where coalition-building can thrust a lower-profile figure into the lead. Because the market resolves on the formal appointment of a prime minister, it extends beyond the election itself and into the coalition negotiations that often define Israeli governments. This feature likely explains why the market remains active and why the probabilities are distributed as they are: the outcome depends not only on vote shares but on post-election bargaining. These probabilities are not forecasts from pollsters or analysts; they are market prices that reflect the aggregate betting behavior of participants who have money at risk. As with any prediction market, the odds can shift rapidly with new information.