Ebola pandemic in 2026?: current odds from prediction markets
Prediction markets price the chance of an Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 2.6%, a level that makes it highly unlikely. The market hinges on whether the World Health Organization explicitly uses the word “pandemic” in an official communication.
Updated · Volume $659.3K
Across platforms
0.3 pt spread- Polymarket2.6%
- Kalshi3.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
The Yes outcome is a long shot at current prices, while the No scenario holds the overwhelming share of probability.
Context
The probability sits at 2.6%. It has traded between 2.5% and 8.5% throughout the market's existence. The last day saw a shift of -0.1 pts, The price has remained in a tight range, with only small fluctuations. This market settles to “Yes” if the World Health Organization issues an official public communication that explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, or any Ebola outbreak, as a “pandemic” between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone does not count unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary source is official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The price could react to any WHO statement that uses the word “pandemic” in connection with Ebola, or to moves by public-health bodies that signal an elevated risk. All bets settle by Dec 31, 2026.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution?
The market resolves to Yes if the WHO explicitly labels an Ebola outbreak a pandemic in an official communication, such as a press briefing or report. A PHEIC declaration is insufficient on its own.
Does the term need to be used precisely?
The WHO must clearly describe an Ebola outbreak as a pandemic. An explicit characterization in any official channel meets the condition.
What happens if there is an Ebola outbreak but the WHO does not call it a pandemic?
The market resolves to No. The designation must come from the WHO and must use the word “pandemic.”
When does the market close?
The market settles after the end of 2026, based on any qualifying WHO communication up to that point.
Can media reports affect the resolution?
The primary source is official WHO communications. Credible reporting may be used only if there is a consensus that supports a WHO declaration.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice