Ebola pandemic in 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets see the chance of an Ebola pandemic next year as a long shot, pricing the risk at 2.9%. The bet hinges on whether the World Health Organization uses the word “pandemic” in an official communication before 2027.
Updated · Volume $759.6K
Across platforms
1.9 pt spread- Polymarket2.9%
- Kalshi1.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
The “Yes” outcome is a long shot, while “No” remains the overwhelming market consensus.
Context
The probability has been. At 2.9%, it shifted -0.0 pts in the last 24 hours. This market resolves to Yes only if the WHO explicitly labels an Ebola outbreak a “pandemic” in an official statement, report, or press briefing. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone does not qualify. Resolution relies primarily on WHO communications, though consensus reporting can also be considered. The key date is the market’s close at the end of 2026. Until then, any WHO declaration matching the criteria would settle the contract. Trading volume sits at $759.6K, and across venues prices differ by 1.9 pts.
FAQ
What triggers a “Yes” resolution?
The WHO must explicitly characterize Ebola as a pandemic in an official communication.
Does a PHEIC count?
No. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone is insufficient unless it is also described as a pandemic.
When does the market resolve?
If a qualifying declaration occurs before 2026 ends, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No after the deadline.
What if credible reporting says pandemic but the WHO avoids the word?
The primary resolution source is official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used, but mere media use of the term is not enough.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice