Eileen Gu citizenship revoked? Live odds & probability
Prediction markets put the probability that freestyle skier Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by end-2026 at 1.7%, a effectively ruled out outcome.
Updated · Volume $50.4K
The Yes scenario, priced at a effectively ruled out 1.7%, remains the focus; No is the far more probable result under current market conditions.
Context
The probability sits at 1.7%. Over the past day, the figure moved +0.1 pts. Trading volume totals $50.4K. The market resolves to Yes if U.S. government sources or a consensus of credible reporting confirm that Eileen Gu's citizenship has been officially rescinded by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it settles as No. The primary resolution source is official U.S. government information, with credible reporting used as a fallback when that is unavailable. The clearest catalyst for movement would be an official U.S. government procedure to revoke her citizenship, or authoritative reports that such a step is imminent. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027, after which the market resolves No unless a revocation has already occurred. Pricing tracks formal announcements and procedural milestones, not speculation.
FAQ
What counts as "officially rescinded"?
The market defines it as the U.S. government formally revoking Eileen Gu's citizenship. Resolution relies on U.S. government information first, then on a consensus of credible media reporting.
When is the final deadline?
December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. If her citizenship hasn't been rescinded by then, the market resolves to No.
Does a change in her Chinese citizenship affect the outcome?
No. The market only tracks U.S. citizenship status. Any development related to Chinese citizenship is irrelevant to this market's resolution.
What happens if there is conflicting information?
Official U.S. government information takes precedence. If that is unavailable, the resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Can the market resolve before 2026?
Yes. If the U.S. government officially rescinds her citizenship at any point before the deadline, the market can resolve to Yes immediately.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice