Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 100.0% — a 23.4-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Eurovision Song Contest 2027 to be held in Burgas, Bulgaria — BBC News
Eurovision 2027 Host City: Current Odds
Markets price Sofia's chances of hosting Eurovision 2027 at 100.0%, making it the near-certain candidate. A final decision is due by December 31, 2026, after which the market resolves to 'Other' if no host is named.
100.0%
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?
Updated · Volume $238.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Varna host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City K host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City H host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City J host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City F host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City D host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another city host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City C host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Plovdiv host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City E host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City B host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City I host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City A host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
| Will City G host Eurovision 2027? | 0.0% | — |
Sofia is strongly favored to host Eurovision 2027, while Burgas holds an outside chance; the remaining cities are all long shots.
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 73.0% to 99.9% — a 26.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 78.8% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 47.3% to 79.0% — a 31.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 43.8% to 53.8% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 65.5% to 57.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 38.6% to 50.2% — a 11.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 64.0% to 59.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 71.0% to 60.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 91.0% to 66.5% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
Sofia's probability currently stands at 100.0%, having traded within a range over the observed period. This market resolves to the city officially announced as the host of Eurovision 2027, based on information from Eurovision's website (eurovision.com) or a consensus of credible reporting. If no host city is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as 'Other'. The key formal catalyst is the announcement of the host city, which could come at any time before the deadline. The approaching deadline without a decision would also affect the probability of the 'Other' outcome and shape the market accordingly.
FAQ
What decides the market?
The market resolves to the city officially announced to host Eurovision 2027, per Eurovision's website or credible reporting.
What if no city is announced by December 31, 2026?
The market resolves to 'Other'.
Can the market resolve earlier?
The market resolves immediately upon the official announcement, regardless of whether that decision is later changed.
What happens if the announced host city is not listed among the outcomes?
The market includes an 'Other' outcome to cover any unlisted city.
How is the resolution source determined?
It relies on the official Eurovision website (eurovision.com) or a consensus of credible media reports.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice