Extended FDV After Launch: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 73.5% probability that Extended's fully diluted valuation will clear the initial benchmark one day after its token becomes tradable, suggesting the outcome is the favored outcome.
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Updated · Volume $3.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | 73.5% | +1.0 |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 47.5% | -3.0 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 23.5% | -1.0 |
| Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | 12.5% | -3.0 |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
The distribution steps down sharply as the thresholds rise. The base case is the favored outcome at 73.5%, while the immediately higher bar is close to a coin flip at 47.5%. Beyond that, each successive target becomes progressively less likely, with the top end firmly unlikely at 12.5%.
Context
The market considers a graduated set of FDV thresholds for Extended's token. At the base level, traders see a 73.5% chance of success, making it the favored outcome. The next hurdle—a higher valuation—is priced at 47.5%, a reading that is close to a coin flip. Meanwhile, the loftier target sits at 23.5%, a probability that represents a substantial minority view. The most ambitious milestone is unlikely, with markets assigning it only 12.5%. The probability has ranged between 40.5% and 58.5%. Resolution rests on a strict timeline. "One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the moment Extended's token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price, sourced from the most liquid available market. If Extended fails to launch any token by Jan 1, 2027, all outcomes resolve to "No."
FAQ
What happens if Extended doesn't launch a token by the deadline?
If no token is launched by Jan 1, 2027, every threshold outcome in this market resolves to "No."
How is FDV determined?
Fully diluted valuation is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The price is taken from the most liquid source available at the resolution time.
What does 'one day after launch' mean?
The snapshot time is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following the day the token becomes actively transferable. If the launch occurs at any time on a given day, the FDV check happens the next calendar day at that fixed time.
Which threshold is the headline one?
The headline outcome corresponds to the lowest FDV level among the market’s brackets. Its probability is 73.5%, which is considered the favored outcome.
How should I interpret the listed probabilities?
These reflect the collective judgment of prediction market participants about the chance each FDV threshold will be met. A number like 23.5% for the upper-mid target indicates a substantial minority view, but still with non-trivial support.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice