Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.9% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
FDA Approves Retatrutide This Year? Market Odds
Markets currently price an FDA approval of Eli Lilly’s Retatrutide at 3.5%, leaving it a long shot for the obesity and metabolic disease drug this year.
3.5%-1.2 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $588.9K
The market is structured around a single binary question — whether the FDA approves Retatrutide — making the complementary “No” outcome a catch-all for any other event.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 5.4% to 3.1% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 5.2% to 2.9% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 6.3% to 3.9% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.1% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 8.3% to 3.6% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 2.8% to 8.3% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 4.0% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 3.9% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 8.0% to 3.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability currently stands at 3.5%. It has traded between 1.9% and 14.4% since the market opened, with a -1.2 pts move in the last day
The contract settles to “Yes” if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration grants a full or conditional approval for any drug product whose active ingredient is retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier) for any use, provided the decision occurs by the market’s deadline. Qualifying approvals include standard, accelerated, and those with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; tentative approvals, emergency use authorizations, and complete response letters do not count. Conditional approvals with post-marketing requirements also qualify. The resolution date — Jan 1, 2027 — marks the final deadline. The primary resolution source is official information from the FDA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. No intermediate deadlines or scheduled events are named in the contract.
FAQ
What counts as an FDA approval for this market?
A full or conditional approval for any new drug application or supplemental application for a drug containing retatrutide. This includes accelerated approvals and those with post-marketing requirements.
Does a tentative approval or emergency use authorization count?
No. Tentative approvals, EUAs, complete response letters, and similar actions do not trigger a “Yes” resolution.
What if the FDA requires additional studies before approval?
A request for more information or an extension of the review period does not constitute approval, so the market would remain unresolved until a final decision is made.
What if the drug is approved after the deadline?
The market only considers approvals occurring on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any later action would resolve the contract as “No.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice