2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs Winner: Odds & Probability

The 2026 TOUR Championship decides the FedEx Cup Playoffs winner, and markets give Scottie Scheffler the best individual chance at 24.5%. That figure means the market still sees him as more likely to lose than win, but no other player comes close to that level of confidence. Rory McIlroy is quoted at 15%, followed by Cameron Young (10.9%) and Tommy Fleetwood (10.8%). Xander Schauffele (8.9%) and Adam Scott (8.5%) sit just below the double-digit tier. Chris Gotterup (8.2%) and Akshay Bhatia (5.5%) round out the names above 5%. Beyond that, probabilities drop sharply. Ludvig Åberg is at 4.9%, Matt Fitzpatrick at 4.5%, and Collin Morikawa at a mere 3.4%. The market lists 30 golfers in total, and 22 of them carry probabilities under 5%. Hideki Matsuyama (2.2%), Justin Rose (1.8%), and Gary Woodland (0.4%) appear far down the list, while Sahith Theegala and Nico Echavarria barely register at 0.3% and 0.2%. Because each outcome is a separate binary contract, the percentages do not need to sum to 100%. They reflect the market’s conviction on each golfer in isolation. The wide spread of numbers, with only one player above 20%, signals a field without a dominant favourite. Even the second choice, McIlroy, is priced at less than one-in-six.