Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 7.8% to 4.0% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Perez to leave Real Madrid by 2026: Market odds
Markets price the chance that Florentino Pérez is out as Real Madrid president by late 2026 at 4.8%, making it a long shot.
4.8%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $123.3K
This market is one-sided, with the departure question the only outcome priced; it currently stands at 4.8%, indicating it is a long shot.
Context
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 4.3% to 7.8% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 4.4% to 7.8% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 7.8% to 3.9% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
The market's assessment has held in a low range. As of now, 4.8% suggests it is a long shot that Pérez departs before the deadline. The contract resolves to Yes if Pérez ceases to hold the presidency at any moment before the expiry, even briefly. An announcement of a resignation or dismissal before the cut-off instantly settles to Yes, regardless of when the change takes effect. Resolution relies on official communication from Real Madrid or Pérez, though a consensus of reputable reporting may suffice. The deadline of Jan 1, 2027 is the key date. Any credible news of Pérez stepping down or being ousted would shift the probability. An official statement from the club or the man himself would have the greatest impact.
FAQ
What does a Yes resolution mean?
The market resolves to Yes if Florentino Pérez ceases to be Real Madrid's president for any length of time by the end of 2026.
How is the outcome determined?
Primarily through official announcements from the club or Pérez. If those are unavailable, a consensus of credible media reports can also trigger resolution.
Does a planned departure count if announced before the deadline?
Yes. An announcement of resignation or firing before the deadline resolves the market to Yes immediately, even if the actual departure date is later.
What if Pérez leaves and returns before the deadline?
Any period in which he is not president, no matter how short, counts as a Yes.
What happens if the deadline passes with no change?
The market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice