Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 57.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Floyd Mayweather a 50.5% chance of beating Manny Pacquiao in their rematch, scheduled for September 19, 2026, leaving the outcome finely balanced.
50.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $212.9K
The remaining probability in the market reflects the chances of a Pacquiao victory or the fight ending without a clear winner (draw, no-contest, or cancellation).
Context
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 50.5% to 64.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
50.5% reflects the current market-assessed chance of a Mayweather victory. The market resolves to “Mayweather” if he is officially declared the winner, to “Pacquiao” if Pacquiao wins, and to “50-50” if the fight ends in a draw or technical draw, is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026. The primary resolution source is the official information from the Netflix broadcast; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The fight, scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, is the key event. If the bout is not held by October 3, 2026, the market automatically settles 50-50. Official confirmation of the winner via the broadcast—or, failing that, a consensus of credible reporting—determines the final outcome.
FAQ
When is the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao rematch scheduled?
The fight is scheduled for September 19, 2026, at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to “Mayweather” if Mayweather is officially declared the winner, to “Pacquiao” if Pacquiao wins, or to “50-50” in the event of a draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond October 3, 2026.
What is the resolution source?
The official result from the Netflix broadcast is the primary source; if that is unclear, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
What happens if the fight is postponed?
If the fight is postponed beyond October 3, 2026, the market resolves to “50-50.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice