Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 75.0% to 82.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Gemini 4.0 Release by July 2026: Latest Odds
Prediction markets put the chance of a public Gemini 4.0 launch before the deadline at 87.5%, a level that renders the prospect strongly favored.
70.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $464.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | 87.5% | 0.0 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | 70.0% | +0.5 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026? | 0.7% | +0.2 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
An imminent Gemini 4.0 launch is seen as a remote tail event; all alternative outcomes are long shots.
Context
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 52.0% to 75.5% — a 23.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 53.0% to 83.0% — a 30.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 62.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 57.5% — a 57.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 57.0% — a 57.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 21.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
The price has barely budged. Over the period tracked, it drifted between 0.0% and 77.5%, with a 24-hour move of +0.5 pts and a. The current quote, 87.5%, sits near the lower bound. To settle ‘Yes,’ Google must make Gemini 4.0 Flash available to the general public by Dec 1, 2026. The market’s terms require a public launch, an open beta, or rolling waitlist signups; private or closed testing does not count. The model must be explicitly named ‘Gemini 4.0’ or be a widely recognized successor to Gemini 3—distinct from intermediate versions like Gemini 3.0 Flash or 2.5. Official Google announcements serve as the primary resolution source, with credible reporting used for verification. A material shift in the probability would likely follow clear signals about a public release: an official Google announcement of a launch date, credible leaks of a near-term rollout, or an unexpected acceleration in the company’s AI development timeline. Any statement delaying or scaling back the release would reinforce the current near-zero pricing. The market’s focus stays squarely on verifiable, publicly accessible evidence as defined in the resolution criteria.
FAQ
What happens if Google releases a model called Gemini 3.5 or Gemini 2.5 Turbo?
The market rules explicitly exclude such versions. Only a model named Gemini 4.0 or a recognized successor to Gemini 3 counts for a ‘Yes’ resolution.
Does a closed beta count as a release?
No. The release must be openly accessible, either via a public launch, an open beta, or open rolling waitlist signups. Any form of private access does not meet the criteria.
How is the resolution verified?
The primary source is official information from Google, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
What if the release happens exactly on the deadline?
As long as the model becomes publicly accessible on or before that date, the market would resolve ‘Yes.’
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, if the conditions are met before the deadline. The market would settle once a qualifying release is confirmed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice