Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 86.0% to 99.8% — a 13.8-point move over the past day.
GPT-6 Release by End of 2026: Market Probability
Prediction markets see a 100.0% probability that OpenAI will release GPT-6 to the public before 2026 is out. The model must be generally accessible, not a closed beta, to trigger a 'Yes'.
100.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The headline horizon of end-2026 is near-certain, while nearer-term dates draw progressively lower odds, with only a couple still seen as more likely than not or a tossup; the rest are outside chances.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 66.0% to 96.5% — a 30.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 70.5% to 96.7% — a 26.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 29.5% to 96.0% — a 66.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 67.5% to 92.5% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 90.5% — a 34.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 73.5% to 62.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 44.5% to 65.0% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 75.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 83.5% to 79.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
The market's confidence with the probability currently at 100.0%. It has traded between 31.0% and 100.0% across the period tracked. The market resolves 'Yes' if GPT-6 is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Access must be via open beta, open rolling waitlist, or a full launch; closed beta or private access do not qualify. The product must be named GPT-6 or recognized as its successor, excluding intermediate labels like GPT-5.5. Official OpenAI announcements serve as the primary resolution source, supplemented by credible reporting. The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Official statements from OpenAI, especially concerning release windows or naming, are the main drivers. Any shift in the public launch timeline or clarification from credible reporting could alter the odds.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a public release?
The model must be accessible to the general public, either through an open beta, an open rolling waitlist signup, or a full launch. Closed beta or any private access does not qualify.
What if the model is not called GPT-6?
It must be explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g., ChatGPT-6o counts) or be clearly positioned as the successor to GPT-5. Intermediate versions like GPT-5.5 are not sufficient.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves shortly after the deadline of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, unless a qualifying release occurs earlier, in which case it resolves immediately after confirmation.
What sources determine the outcome?
Official information from OpenAI is the primary source, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice