Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will someone else win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election at 50.0%.
50.0%
Will someone else win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Updated · Volume $426.6K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 100.0% | — |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kate Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jake Austin win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Richard Kilpatrick win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Arooj Shah win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Paul Dennett win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Marlon Scott West win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will George Galloway win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Laura Evans win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | 0.1% | — |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $426.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will someone else win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election, is priced at 50.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice