GRVT FDV one day after launch: Live market odds
Markets give a 98.6% chance — near-certain — that GRVT's fully diluted valuation will top the first threshold one day after its governance token launches. The token must be actively tradable, with FDV pegged to total supply times price at 4:00 PM ET the following day.
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Updated · Volume $800.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? | 98.6% | -0.4 |
| GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? | 97.0% | -0.2 |
| GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? | 90.0% | +4.0 |
| GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 65.5% | -1.0 |
| GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 27.0% | 0.0 |
| GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? | 9.5% | -0.1 |
| GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 4.5% | -0.5 |
The most modest FDV tier is near-certain at 98.6%, while all higher thresholds remain long shots in the market’s view.
Context
The headline probability stands at 98.6%, near-certain. Over the observation period it has swung from 23.5% to 69.5%. Trading volume has reached $800.1K. The market resolves to Yes if GRVT’s fully diluted valuation exceeds a given dollar amount one day after its token launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The snapshot is taken at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the launch, using the most liquid price source available. To constitute a launch, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no token is launched by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as No. The timeline is bounded by the launch deadline: Jan 1, 2028. The key variables are whether the GRVT team ships a token by that date, the initial market price assigned to it, and the total supply chosen. The snapshot timing—exactly 4:00 PM ET the day following any launch—also determines whether a given FDV threshold is breached. Any delay in trading, liquidity shortfall, or deviation from the most liquid price source would shape the final reading.
FAQ
What does the market actually predict?
It forecasts the likelihood that GRVT’s fully diluted valuation will surpass a set dollar figure one day after its governance token becomes tradable, based on the rules described.
How is the FDV determined?
The fully diluted valuation is total supply multiplied by the token’s price at 4:00 PM ET the day after launch, sourced from the most liquid available market.
What happens if the token launch is delayed or cancelled?
If no token has launched by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Does the token need to be listed on a major exchange?
It simply needs to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The resolution source will pick the most liquid price venue at the snapshot, whatever that may be.
Why are there multiple thresholds?
Different markets track various FDV thresholds, each settled independently against the same launch event and snapshot rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice