Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 88.5% — a 30.5-point move over the past day.
GTA VI Released Before November 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Grand Theft Auto VI ships before November 2026 at 89.5%, keeping the outcome in the strongly favored category.
89.5%+3.0 pts 24h
GTA VI released by November 30?
Updated · Volume $107.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| GTA VI released by November 30? | 89.5% | +3.0 |
| GTA VI released by October 31? | 1.6% | +0.2 |
| GTA VI released by September 30? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
The headline contract only concerns a ‘Yes’ release—currently in strongly favored territory—with the alternative (a later or absent launch) priced as the complement.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 50.0% to 88.5% — a 38.5-point move over the past day.
The contract has moved from 40.0% to 94.5% during its run, currently priced at 89.5%. The price shifted by +3.0 pts over the past day. Total volume traded stands at $107.5K. To resolve to a ‘Yes’, Grand Theft Auto VI must become publicly available for purchase or download in the US by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Early access, beta tests, or leaks do not count. A console-exclusive release—say, only on Xbox—still qualifies. Official confirmation from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive serves as the resolution source. Key conditions that could shift the probability include the approach of the October 31, 2026 deadline (Dec 1, 2026), any official release-date announcement or delay from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive, and the resolution source that will ultimately determine the outcome.
FAQ
What does ‘release’ mean for this market?
The game must be publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, betas, or leaks are not considered a release.
Does a release only on certain platforms count?
Yes. The description explicitly notes that a release only on certain consoles (like Xbox Series X/S) still counts as a release.
Who determines whether the game has been released?
The resolution source is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
What is the exact deadline for the release?
The market resolves to Yes only if the release happens by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
What happens if the game is released after the deadline?
If the official release occurs after October 31, 2026, or not at all by that date, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice