Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 2.5%, implying the World Health Organization is unlikely to characterize any outbreak as such by year-end.
Updated · Volume $18.2M
The "Yes" outcome is seen as a long shot, while the default "No" resolution is overwhelmingly favored.
Context
The line has stayed near 2.5%, with a 24‑hour move of 0.0 pts. This market resolves to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone does not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source is official WHO communications, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Otherwise, it resolves to "No". The only formal condition that could shift the odds is an official WHO statement using the word "pandemic" before the settlement date of Jan 1, 2027. Absent such a declaration, the market will resolve in the negative.
FAQ
What counts as an official WHO characterization?
Any explicit WHO statement, report, press briefing, or publication that clearly describes the outbreak as a "pandemic."
Does a PHEIC declaration trigger a "Yes" resolution?
No. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern is not sufficient unless it is also accompanied by the term "pandemic."
When does the market settle?
At the end of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
What if the WHO uses different wording?
The market requires the word "pandemic" explicitly; synonyms or similar phrases do not count.
Can credible news reports override an absent WHO statement?
A consensus of credible reporting may serve as a secondary resolution source, but the primary focus remains official WHO communications.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice