Highest Grossing Movie 2026: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets give Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 72% chance to become the highest-grossing film at the domestic box office in 2026. With more than $14.7m in total volume, this market reflects heavy trading and broad consensus around the lead contender. The market resolves based on the calendar-year grosses published on Box Office Mojo for 2026. Only ticket sales within that year count; any revenue from late-2025 or early-2027 releases is excluded. If data is unavailable by 7 January 2027, an alternative credible source will be used. An exact tie would be broken alphabetically. Avengers: Doomsday sits in second place at 14.5%, far behind Spider-Man but notably ahead of the rest. Toy Story 5 holds 5.1%, and the drop-off from there is sharp. The Odyssey, at 2.4%, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, at 1.1%, barely register. Below them, a cluster of films—Dune: Messiah, Jumanji 3, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, and others—each hover at or below 0.5%. The large gap between the top two and the field suggests traders are confident the winner will come from the front-runners. The sheer number of outcomes priced at 0.0%, including a generic 'another movie' option, indicates the market sees almost no chance of an upset from an unlisted film. Even some named sequels and franchise entries are assigned negligible probabilities, reflecting low expectations for their box-office draws relative to the leading titles. This distribution is typical of markets where release schedules are known and brand strength is visible. Spider-Man’s dominance likely stems from the franchise’s consistent performance, but the market still leaves a 28% chance that another film—most plausibly Avengers: Doomsday—overtakes it.