Highest grossing movie in 2026? Odds & Probability

As of 7 min ago, prediction markets assign a 93.5% probability to Spider-Man: Brand New Day being the highest grossing domestic film of 2026. The market settles against Box Office Mojo's calendar-year data once published.

93.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Updated · Volume $17.5M

91%92%94%96%Aug 23Aug 31Sep 7Sep 15Sep 22
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?93.5%0.0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?3.5%-0.2
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Movie N be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie G be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie O be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie D be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie I be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie K be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will another movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie E be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie J be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie M be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie H be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie F be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Movie L be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Minions & Monsters be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.0%0.0

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the strongly favored to win, while Avengers: Doomsday holds an outside chance and the other titles are all long shots.

Context

Jul 25, 2026

Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Jul 22, 2026

Probability rose from 74.5% to 81.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.

Jul 16, 2026

Probability rose from 56.5% to 75.5% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.

The contract currently sits at 93.5%. This market will resolve based on the film with the highest domestic gross during the 2026 calendar year, as recorded in the 'Gross' column of Box Office Mojo's 2026 year page. Only receipts earned from January 1 through December 31, 2026 count. If two films end in an exact tie, the market settles to the one that comes first alphabetically. Should Box Office Mojo's final data not be available by January 7, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will use another credible resolution source. Formal triggers for price movement include the publication of weekly and year-end grosses by Box Office Mojo, which gradually reveal the standings. The resolution deadline is Jan 8, 2027. The possibility of a switch to an alternative source if the deadline is missed also influences pricing.

FAQ

How is the highest grossing movie determined?

It is the film with the largest domestic gross during the 2026 calendar year, according to Box Office Mojo's 'Gross' column on their 2026 page.

What happens if there is a tie?

If two films have exactly the same gross, the winner is the one that comes first alphabetically.

What source is used for the data?

The primary source is Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar grosses page. If that data isn't final by the deadline, another credible source will be chosen.

Do international grosses count?

No. Only domestic (U.S. and Canada) grosses within the 2026 calendar year are considered.

What is the deadline for resolution?

If Box Office Mojo's final data is not available by January 7, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will use an alternative resolution source.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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