How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections at 30.5%.
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
Updated · Volume $691.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 30.5% | +2.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 23.5% | -1.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 17.0% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.9% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.4% | +0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.7% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $691.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, is priced at 30.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice