How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections at 31.5%.

31.5%+1.5 pts 24h

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

Updated · Volume $683.4K

24%34%45%56%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?31.5%+1.5
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?29.5%+1.0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?18.5%+1.0
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?18.0%+8.5
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?3.6%-0.2
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?0.7%0.0
Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?0.4%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 101.1% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $683.4K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, is priced at 31.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice