Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 80.3% to 77.0% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
SpaceX 2026 Launches: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026 at 78.1%.
78.1%-0.1 pts 24h
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
Updated · Volume $333.9K
Across platforms
18.9 pt spreadWill SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
- Polymarket78.1%
- Kalshi97.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? | 78.1% | -0.1 |
| Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026? | 13.9% | +1.2 |
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? | 6.3% | -4.4 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? | 1.2% | +0.1 |
| Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? | 1.0% | 0.0 |
| Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.0% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 76.4% to 83.0% — a 6.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 83.3% to 77.5% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 79.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 79.7% to 81.9% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 85.0% to 77.0% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 79.4% to 82.5% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 75.3% to 81.0% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 56.8% to 69.9% — a 13.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 50.0% to 60.9% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $333.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026, is priced at 78.1%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice