SpaceX 2026 Launches: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026 at 78.1%.

78.1%-0.1 pts 24h

Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?

Updated · Volume $333.9K

42%59%75%92%Aug 22Aug 29Sep 6Sep 13Sep 21

Across platforms

18.9 pt spread

Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?

  • Polymarket78.1%
  • Kalshi97.0%

Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.

OutcomeProbability24h
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?78.1%-0.1
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?13.9%+1.2
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?6.3%-4.4
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?2.1%0.0
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?1.2%+0.1
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?1.0%0.0
Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 99.0% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 15, 2026

Probability fell from 80.3% to 77.0% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.

Sep 14, 2026

Probability rose from 76.4% to 83.0% — a 6.6-point move over the past day.

Sep 13, 2026

Probability fell from 83.3% to 77.5% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.

Sep 12, 2026

Probability fell from 82.5% to 79.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability rose from 79.7% to 81.9% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 6, 2026

Probability fell from 85.0% to 77.0% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.

Sep 4, 2026

Probability rose from 79.4% to 82.5% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.

Sep 3, 2026

Probability rose from 75.3% to 81.0% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.

Aug 26, 2026

Probability rose from 56.8% to 69.9% — a 13.1-point move over the past day.

Aug 26, 2026

Probability rose from 50.0% to 60.9% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $333.9K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026, is priced at 78.1%.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice

Embed this widget
TypeTheme

Free to use. Please keep the “ChanceIndex” attribution. It updates itself — no scripts, no cookies.