How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of at least 1250 tornadoes in the US in 2026 at 90.5%, making it strongly favored. The count will be settled by the NCEI’s monthly tornado data.
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
Updated · Volume $83.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 90.5% | 0.0 |
| Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 4.5% | +0.2 |
| Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 4.3% | -0.2 |
| Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 3.1% | +0.2 |
| Will 1050 to 1099 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will 1000 to 1049 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The outcome of at least 1250 tornadoes is strongly favored; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The probability for at least 1250 tornadoes sits at 90.5%, making it strongly favored. Over the observed period, the number has swung from 83.5% to 91.0%. It moved 0.0 pts in the last day,
The market will settle based on the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Tornadoes Time Series. Only tornado counts for all months of 2026 are considered, as reported on the NCEI page. The resolution trigger is the first relevant data publication on the time-series page after the scheduled release time for the December 2026 report. If that first publication is marked preliminary, it still counts. However, the market ignores any preliminary values published before the scheduled release. If the December report is delayed, the market remains open until the data appears or until the next monthly release date, at which point it resolves on the most recent available month. Should the NCEI website become permanently unavailable, another credible source will be used. The odds respond to the monthly NCEI tornado count releases throughout 2026, culminating in the final report expected around Jan 10, 2027. Any delays in publication or changes to the NCEI reporting schedule could also shift the market, as traders reassess the likelihood of reaching the 1250 threshold before the resolution trigger.
FAQ
What data source is used to resolve the market?
The market relies on the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page, specifically the final monthly counts for 2026.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the first relevant tornado count for December 2026 (or the final month) is published on the NCEI time-series page, following the scheduled release time.
What happens if the December data is delayed?
The market stays open. If the data isn’t available by the next monthly release date, it will resolve using the most recent prior month’s counts.
Do preliminary tornado counts count toward resolution?
Yes, but only if they are the first data published after the scheduled release time. Preliminary figures released ahead of schedule are ignored.
What if the NCEI website goes down permanently?
The market’s terms state that another credible source would be used to determine the final count, though this scenario is not expected.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice