Iran Full Airspace Closure by August 31: Live Market Odds
Prediction markets assign a 40.5% chance to Iran closing its airspace by August 31, a close to a coin flip assessment that reflects uncertainty over whether Tehran will replicate the broad shutdowns seen in early 2026.
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Updated · Volume $3.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | 40.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | 26.5% | +2.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | 3.5% | -4.9 |
| Iran full airspace closure by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
The nearest-term prospects for a full closure remain a substantial minority view for the July 31 window, while the August 31 headline sits at a close to a coin flip chance; the remaining outcomes are distant tail risks.
Context
The probability has swung from a low of 15.5% to a high of 63.0% over the life of the market, and now sits at 40.5%. The market resolves to Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, meaning a suspension of commercial flights broadly across the Tehran FIR, between market creation and the resolution date. The rules explicitly exclude weather-related closures, limited or partial shutdowns, and restrictions imposed by other nations. Qualifying precedents include the February 2026 total closure and the January 2026 near-total closure cited in the description, while military drills in restricted zones or VFR flight suspensions do not count. A closure that permits limited exceptions, such as flights with Iranian government pre-approval, still qualifies. The ultimate deadline is Aug 31, 2026. Any official announcement from Iranian aviation authorities or credible reports of a nationwide flight suspension would be material. The primary resolution sources are official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting, so developments that trigger such notices are the conditions that could move the market.
FAQ
What qualifies as a 'general closure' of Iranian airspace?
A general closure means cancellation or suspension of aviation that applies to all commercial flights transiting the Tehran FIR. Limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures do not qualify.
Do weather-related closures count?
No. The rules explicitly exclude airspace closures caused solely by weather, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions.
What if another country bans flights over Iran, but Iran itself doesn't close the airspace?
Such external restrictions do not trigger a Yes resolution. Only closures initiated by Iran itself qualify.
Are there examples of past closures that would count?
Yes, the February 2026 total closure and the January 2026 near-total closure with exceptions for government-approved flights are qualifying precedents.
How is the resolution determined?
The primary resolution sources are official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice