Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 32.5% to 21.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Iran full airspace closure by August 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently give a 26.5% chance that Iran will shut its airspace by August 31. That probability reflects a a substantial minority view view, with traders seeing meaningful risk but not a likely outcome.
26.5%-5.0 pts 24h
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Updated · Volume $9.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | 26.5% | -5.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy) | 13.0% | -1.5 |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | 5.5% | -2.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 21? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 24? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 27? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The companion contract for a closure by August 15 is also considered a unlikely scenario. The wider set of alternative deadlines all sit at long-shot probabilities.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 25.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 22.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 27.0% to 18.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran war live: Iran says Hormuz remains closed despite Oman route deal — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 19.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 37.0% to 26.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 37.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 39.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 59.5% to 45.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
As of 9 min ago, prediction markets price the probability of an Iranian airspace closure at 26.5%, making it a a substantial minority view prospect. The contract has traded as low as 16.5% and as high as 34.0% since its launch, indicating periods of heightened concern. For a Yes resolution, Iran must implement a general suspension of aviation across the Tehran FIR, cancelling or prohibiting all commercial flights (with limited possible exceptions for government-approved operations). Partial closures, such as those limited to specific regions like the Strait of Hormuz or the western border, do not qualify. Closures imposed by other nations, or those caused exclusively by weather or natural disasters, also result in a No. Previous instances, such as the February 2026 total shutdown, would meet the criteria, while military drill restrictions would not. Trading volume stands at $9.7M. The market thus reflects a continuous reassessment of geopolitical tensions, but the minority probability suggests that while a shutdown is plausible, it remains far from the base case.
FAQ
What is this market predicting?
It predicts whether Iran will initiate a general closure of its airspace, not solely due to weather, before the market’s specified expiry date. If the conditions are met, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise No.
What qualifies as a “general closure”?
A general closure is a suspension or cancellation of aviation that applies to all commercial flights transiting the Tehran FIR. Limited exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be allowed, but the closure must be broadly applicable. Regional or partial closures do not qualify.
Are weather-related closures considered?
No. Closures that occur solely because of weather, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions are explicitly excluded from a Yes resolution.
How is the probability determined?
The probability is derived from the prices at which traders buy and sell shares in the outcome on a prediction market. It reflects the collective assessment of participants using available information.
What is the current chance of a closure?
As of 9 min ago, the market-implied probability is 26.5%, which is characterized as a a substantial minority view view.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice