Is Earth flat? Market Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that conclusive proof the Earth is flat surfaces by Jan 1, 2027 at 0.7%, effectively ruled out.
Updated · Volume $57.3K
The Yes outcome is effectively ruled out, with No overwhelmingly favored.
Context
The probability sits at 0.7%. It has moved 0.0 pts in the past day. The market resolves to Yes only if conclusive proof that Earth is flat becomes public by the resolution deadline, as judged by a consensus of credible reporting. In all other cases it settles as No. The number could react to any credible reporting that claims to provide such proof before the deadline. Once the deadline passes, the market mechanically closes to No if no consensus has emerged.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It doesn't predict; it reflects the market's assessment of the probability that conclusive proof the Earth is flat will be made public by the deadline.
How is "conclusive proof" determined?
The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, as specified in the market's terms. The exact process is set by the platform.
What happens if no proof emerges by the deadline?
The market resolves to No, meaning it pays out to those who held No positions.
Can the deadline be extended?
The rules state a fixed end date, so unless the market operator intervenes, the deadline is final.
Does the market account for gradual evidence or only a sudden announcement?
The resolution condition is binary: either conclusive proof becomes public by the deadline, or it does not. Any evidence that falls short of that standard does not trigger a Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice