Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 94.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
July 2026 Temperature Increase: Market Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $61.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 94.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 94.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 94.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 85.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 83.0% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability fell from 68.5% to 58.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 58.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 89.5% to 62.0% — a 27.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice