Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.1% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Justin Aguiar Conviction Odds: Will He Be Convicted Before 2027?
Prediction markets assign 17.0% to the chance that Justin Aguiar is convicted of sexual assault before 2027, after Toronto police arrested and charged him in connection with an alleged 2024 assault.
17.0%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $52.6K
The market assigns a decisive edge to the alternative, leaving the conviction outcome as unlikely.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 18.8% to 21.3% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 20.9% to 16.6% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 17.3% to 21.4% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
As of 17 min ago, the conviction probability stands at 17.0%. The consistent pricing suggests traders see a conviction as unlikely. The market resolves strictly according to the first official judgment on the sexual assault charge. If Aguiar is convicted before 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027, the market settles to 'Yes'. Any other outcome—including a plea bargain without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or a case that ends with no court ruling—results in a 'No'. Appeals will not alter the resolution. What could move the needle? The clock itself is a factor, as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline draws nearer without a verdict. Beyond that, any formal court action—an indictment, a trial date setting, or a preliminary ruling—could cause the probability to adjust, because the market's sole information is the official judgment. Speculation about the strength of evidence is unlikely to shift prices unless it translates into procedural milestones.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution for this market?
The market resolves to 'Yes' only if a court convicts Justin Aguiar of the sexual assault charge he currently faces. This must happen by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, and it must be the first official judgment in the case.
What if the case ends with a plea deal or is dismissed?
Any resolution that does not involve a formal guilty verdict from a court—such as a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any situation where no judgment is rendered—will cause the market to resolve to 'No'.
Do appeals matter for the outcome?
No. The market resolves based on the first official judgment. Any subsequent appeals or reversals have no bearing on the settlement.
How is the resolution verified?
The primary source is an official court judgment. If that is not available, credible news reporting of the judgment may also be used to determine the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice