Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 90.7% to 97.6% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Will Kimi K3 Launch by July 2026? Market Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $61.5K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice