La Velada del Año 6: Alondrissa vs Angie Velasco: Odds & Probability
Markets currently see an Alondrissa win as effectively ruled out, pricing it at 0.1%. The fight is scheduled for July 25, 2026, at Estadio de La Cartuja in Sevilla.
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Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
Markets currently see an Alondrissa victory as a long shot, with the other resolutions—a win for Angie Velasco or a 50-50 outcome—accounting for almost all of the probability.
Context
The probability of Alondrissa prevailing currently sits at 0.1%.. The market settles based on the official winner declared during the La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel. An official win for Alondrissa means the market resolves in her favor; a win for Angie Velasco resolves to her. If the bout ends in a draw, no contest, or is not scored, or if it is canceled or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to ‘50-50.’ The same applies if either fighter fails to compete as scheduled—whether through withdrawal, replacement, or any other non-participation. The number will move based on how the fight approaches its scheduled date. Because the rules dictate a 50-50 resolution if the bout is canceled, postponed past the August 8 cut-off, or if either fighter does not compete as scheduled, any news that makes those outcomes more or less likely will shift the probability. The official broadcast serves as the resolution source.
FAQ
What happens if the fight ends in a draw?
The market resolves to “50-50.” If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, or is ruled a No Contest or not scored, it does not count as a win for either fighter.
What if one of the fighters is replaced or pulls out?
If either Alondrissa or Angie Velasco does not compete as scheduled—due to withdrawal, substitution, or any other reason for non-participation—the market resolves to “50-50.”
How is the winner officially determined?
The primary resolution source is the official La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel. If that is unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
What if the fight is postponed?
If the fight is postponed but still occurs by August 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves normally. If postponed beyond that date, it resolves to “50-50.”
Are all types of wins treated the same?
Yes, any official declaration of a winner—by decision, knockout, or otherwise—causes the market to resolve in favor of that fighter.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice