La Velada del Año 6: Aguirre vs Edul Fight Odds
Prediction markets price an Edu Aguirre victory at 99.8% in his La Velada del Año VI contest against Gastón Edul.
Updated · Volume $48.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
An Aguirre win seems all but certain, while Edul, a draw, or any irregular resolution look like long shots.
Context
The line has moved and now rests at 99.8%. RESOLUTION & RULES: This market resolves to “Aguirre” if Edu Aguirre is declared the winner, or “Edul” if Gastón Edul wins. It resolves to “50-50” if the fight ends in a draw or technical draw, is ruled a no contest, is cancelled, or is postponed beyond. A 50-50 resolution also applies if either fighter does not compete as scheduled—including withdrawal, substitution, or non-participation for any reason. The winner is determined by official information from the La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel, though a consensus of credible reporting may be used. WHAT WOULD MOVE THE NUMBER: Any credible sign that the scheduled bout will slip past would force a 50-50 payout, almost certainly rattling the price. Reports of a possible withdrawal or substitution would do the same. Beyond those edge cases, the probability could edge around as the event nears, though the market currently treats such scenarios as remote.
FAQ
How is the winner determined?
The market relies on the official La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel. If that is inconclusive, a consensus of credible reporting can settle it.
What happens if the fight is a draw?
A draw, technical draw, or no contest all trigger a 50-50 resolution.
What if one fighter pulls out?
If either Edu Aguirre or Gastón Edul does not compete for any reason—withdrawal, replacement, or non-participation—the market resolves 50-50.
How long can the fight be postponed?
Any postponement past forces a 50-50 resolution.
When does the market settle?
Settlement takes place once a winner is declared or a 50-50 outcome is triggered. If the bout goes ahead on its scheduled date, resolution should follow quickly.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice