Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 0.1% — a 28.0-point move over the past day.
La Velada del Año 6: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Odds
Prediction markets price IlloJuan as 0.1% to defeat TheGrefg in their bout at La Velada del Año VI, scheduled for July 25, 2026.
0.1%
Updated · Volume $65.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
IlloJuan is priced as a remote tail; the remaining outcomes—a TheGrefg victory or a 50‑50 resolution—absorb virtually all the probability.
Context
The implied probability for IlloJuan currently sits at 0.1%. The market resolves strictly to “IlloJuan” if he is declared the winner, to “TheGrefg” if the latter wins, or to “50‑50” in the event of a draw, no‑contest, or any cancellation or postponement past August 8, 2026. If either fighter fails to compete as originally scheduled—via withdrawal, substitution, or any non‑participation—the contract also settles at 50‑50. The primary source is the official La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback. A limited set of formal conditions could shift this number: the fight itself on July 25, 2026, an official postponement or cancellation, or any change in the scheduled participants. Since the settlement rule pegs the outcome to the day‑of result and an absolute deadline, any news that touches the likelihood of those triggers—without altering the underlying event—can move the price.
FAQ
What exactly does the market predict?
It reflects the current consensus on IlloJuan’s chances of beating TheGrefg, based on trading activity, not an objective forecast.
How is the winner determined?
The market settles to the official winner declared during the La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel.
What happens if the fight is a draw?
If the bout ends in a draw or technical draw, or is ruled a no‑contest, the market resolves to 50‑50.
What if the fight is postponed?
A postponement past August 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET triggers a 50‑50 resolution. Any cancellation also resolves at 50‑50.
What if one fighter pulls out?
If either IlloJuan or TheGrefg does not compete as scheduled, the market immediately resolves to 50‑50.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice