Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 88.0% to 100.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
La Velada del Año 6: Plex vs. Fernanfloo Odds
Prediction markets price a Plex victory at 100.0%, reflecting a heavy tilt toward the favorite ahead of the La Velada del Año VI bout.
100.0%
Updated · Volume $68.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
Plex is the overwhelming favorite, with all other scenarios — Fernanfloo winning, a draw, a no contest, or any administrative cancellation — grouped as long shots.
Context
The contract for Plex to win has traded, with the latest reading at 100.0% — essentially reflecting a near-certain outcome. This market resolves to “Plex” if he is officially declared the winner against Fernanfloo. A “Fernanfloo” outcome requires his official victory. Any draw, no contest, cancellation, postponement beyond the specified deadline, or substitution of either fighter resolves the contract as “50-50”. The primary source is the official Twitch broadcast of La Velada del Año VI, with credible reporting as a fallback. The probability would shift only if new information directly challenges these resolution conditions — for example, news about a change in participants, doubts about the fight proceeding as scheduled, or signals from official sources about the broadcast. The deadline for the bout to take place as planned is baked into the rules; any postponement past the cutoff forces a 50-50 settlement.
FAQ
What happens if Plex wins?
The market resolves to “Plex” based on the official declaration from the event broadcast or credible reports.
What if the fight ends in a draw?
Any draw, technical draw, or no contest resolves the market as “50-50”.
What if a substitute fighter replaces Plex or Fernanfloo?
If either scheduled fighter does not compete as planned, the market resolves to “50-50”.
How is the winner officially determined?
The primary resolution source is the official La Velada del Año VI broadcast on Ibai Llanos’s Twitch channel; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Is there a deadline for the fight to happen?
Yes. If the bout is postponed beyond the cutoff specified in the market rules, it resolves to “50-50”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice