Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election at 65.5%.

65.5%+2.0 pts 24h

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Updated · Volume $12.9M

56%60%64%68%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?65.5%+2.0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?34.7%-2.2
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will another candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.2% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 12 tracked outcomes and $12.9M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, is priced at 65.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice