Los Angeles Mayoral Election: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election at 64.5%.

64.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Updated · Volume $13.5M

59%63%67%72%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?64.5%0.0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?35.1%0.0
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will another candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 12 tracked outcomes and $13.5M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, is priced at 64.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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