Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 52.6% to 6.2% — a 46.4-point move over the past day.
Major Volcano Eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 Odds
Markets currently price the chance of a major volcanic eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 at 9.1%, an outside chance. Resolution depends on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program’s official tally for the year.
9.1%+1.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $146.4K
The ‘Yes’ outcome sits at 9.1%, an outside chance, while the alternative of no such eruption dominates the market.
Context
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 52.6% — a 47.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 38.0% to 5.5% — a 32.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 38.0% — a 33.2-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.8% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 5.4% to 3.3% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.7% to 4.0% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
The probability has traded within a range from 4.5% to 19.2%. Currently at 9.1%, the market has not shifted dramatically. This market settles to Yes if the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program records any volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or higher between the market’s launch and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The primary resolution source is the program’s ‘Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)’ page, specifically the VEI 6 figure for 2026, as updated by March 31, 2027, at 12 PM ET. Prior updates are not considered. If the dataset remains unupdated by that deadline, or if the Smithsonian source becomes permanently unavailable, the market may resolve using consensus from other credible scientific institutions such as the USGS or national volcanic observatories. The event that would push the probability toward certainty is the occurrence of a qualifying eruption before the start of 2027. The final determination, however, awaits the Smithsonian’s official data release, expected by March 31, 2027. No other scheduled announcements are tied to the market’s movement.
FAQ
How does the market define a 'major volcano eruption'?
It relies on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program’s classification: any eruption assigned a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or higher for the 2026 calendar year meets the threshold.
What happens if the Smithsonian data isn’t updated by March 31, 2027?
The market will then attempt to resolve using a consensus of credible scientific sources, which could include the USGS, national volcanic observatories, or widely reported scientific agreement.
Why March 2027?
The Smithsonian traditionally compiles and releases its annual eruption statistics during the first quarter. The market waits until the end of March to allow that process to complete.
Does the eruption need to start in 2026?
The eruption must occur between the market’s creation date and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Continuations from prior years are not considered unless a new VEI ≥6 event begins in 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice