Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026 at 53.0%.
53.0%
Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $28.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | 94.7% | +2.4 |
| Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | 53.0% | — |
| Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | 23.9% | +1.7 |
The top 4 outcomes account for 271.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 4 tracked outcomes and $28.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026, is priced at 53.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice