Will the US Exceed a Key Measles Threshold in 2026?
Traders give a 100.0% chance that the headline measles threshold is breached in the United States this year, a prospect that has been near-certain for the life of the contract.
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Updated · Volume $7.9M
Across platforms
40.0 pt spreadWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Polymarket59.0%
- Kalshi99.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 99.9% | +0.5 |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 86.5% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 74.5% | +5.0 |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 59.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 13.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 5.9% | +0.7 |
| Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 2.1% | +0.1 |
The lowest threshold is priced as a near‑certainty, while each successive target faces longer odds, putting the most ambitious markers in the tail of the distribution.
Context
The contract now sits at 100.0%. It has ranged from 18.0% to 61.5% over its lifetime. Resolution hinges solely on the CDC’s official tally of measles (rubeola) cases. The market will settle “Yes” if the count hits or exceeds the threshold at any time from January 1 to December 31, 2026, based on the CDC Measles counter. State‑level reporting and other sources do not count. If the CDC counter becomes unavailable, a credible alternative would be used. The market is sensitive to the pace of case accrual in the CDC data. A sharp increase in reported infections would raise the odds, while a slow year would push them down. The eligibility window closes at midnight on December 31, 2026, after which no further cases are considered. Only the CDC’s published figure matters, so revisions or discrepancies from other agencies are irrelevant.
FAQ
What data determines the outcome?
Only the CDC's official Measles (Rubeola) case counter. The market ignores state or other agency reports.
What if the CDC counter becomes unavailable?
A different credible source would be used as a fallback, as stated in the market rules.
When can this market resolve?
It can resolve as soon as the threshold is crossed, or at the end of 2026 if the count stays below.
What type of measles is included?
Rubeola, the standard form of measles tracked by public health agencies.
Do globally imported cases count?
Yes, as long as they are confirmed on US territory and logged by the CDC.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice