Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Odds & Probabilities

The prediction market for measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 shows a range of probabilities across ten thresholds, from 500 to 12,500 cases. Trading volume stands above $7.7 million, and the market will settle based on the CDC’s official case counter at year-end 2026. Markets assign a 100% probability to at least 500, 1,000, and 2,000 cases, indicating near-certainty that the total will exceed 2,000. Beyond that, conviction tapers quickly. The chance of at least 3,000 cases is 84%, and the probability drops to 60.5% for 3,500. The 50‑50 point—where the odds of a yes or no outcome are roughly equal—falls between 3,500 and 4,000, as the 4,000 threshold sits at 36%. Higher totals are seen as progressively less likely: 5,000 cases commands a 16.5% probability, 7,500 stands at 8.5%, and 10,000 at 6.8%. The highest threshold, 12,500, draws just 4.5%. No single explanation underlies these prices. The market aggregates traders’ views without revealing their reasoning. The pattern suggests a baseline expectation of several thousand cases, with a sharp decline in confidence beyond roughly 4,000. The long tail extending to low single-digit probabilities for very high counts indicates that while a major surge is not expected, it is not dismissed entirely. The eventual case count will depend on factors such as public‑health measures, vaccination coverage, and outbreak dynamics—all outside the scope of the market data itself.