Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 15.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
MegaETH Airdrop by 2026: Odds & Probability
The chance that MegaETH will carry out an airdrop before 2027 stands at 14.0%, making such an event unlikely according to traders on the prediction market.
14.0%-1.5 pts 24h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | 14.0% | -1.5 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by September 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by March 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 28? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline market dominates, with the remaining scenarios all trading at negligible levels.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 16.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 19.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 24.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The market has hovered at 14.0% with minimal fluctuation. Trading volume over the period totals $2.6M. The contract has traded between 12.0% and 24.0%. The market resolves to Yes if MegaETH successfully conducts a token airdrop on or before December 31, 2026. If no such event occurs by that date, it settles to No. The determination is made according to the market’s published settlement guidelines. The probability is sensitive to official announcements from the MegaETH team regarding any airdrop plans. The approaching resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 also acts as a natural pressure point; as the deadline nears, the odds may sharpen. Any concrete news of an airdrop or explicit statement ruling one out would likely cause a significant repricing.
FAQ
How does this market work?
It predicts whether MegaETH will perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026. Shares of Yes pay out only if the condition is met.
What is the resolution source?
The market settles based on publicly verifiable information confirming the occurrence or non‑occurrence of an airdrop, as specified in the market’s terms.
When will the market be resolved?
Final settlement occurs shortly after December 31, 2026, or earlier if it becomes clear that an airdrop cannot happen.
What if the airdrop is announced but delayed beyond the deadline?
The market would resolve to No, because the condition requires the airdrop to take place by that specific date.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice