Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 62.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Mike Lindell touts Trump ties in race for governor of Minnesota, where Trump has lost — NPR News
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary electionEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $860.7K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jeff Johnson win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Brad Kohler win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Phil Parrish win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Chris Madel win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 55.5% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 52.5% — a 27.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Women in Maine may choose the victor in this year's Senate race — NPR News
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 71.0% to 60.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Women in Maine may choose the victor in this year's Senate race — NPR News
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 84.0% to 78.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Republican who withdrew last month beats Trump-backed rival in Michigan — The Guardian
Show earlier updates
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 84.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Republican who withdrew last month beats Trump-backed rival in Michigan — The Guardian
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 82.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 55.0% to 64.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 61.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 47.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice