Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 81.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Milwaukee Brewers as strongly favored to take the 2026 NL Central, with a 94.5% probability.
94.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title
Updated · Volume $998.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title | 94.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title? | 5.0% | 0.0 |
| Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 NL Central title? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 NL Central title? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another team win the 2026 NL Central title? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Brewers are strongly favored, while all other contenders are viewed as long shots.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 77.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 81.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 75.5% to 81.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 64.5% to 75.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 65.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 59.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 83.5% to 75.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 84.5% to 79.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 85.0% to 78.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Data updated 6 min ago. The probability for the Milwaukee Brewers to win the 2026 NL Central has moved within a range from 58.5% to 94.0% over the tracked period, and now stands at 94.5%. In the last 24 hours, the odds shifted by +1.0 pts. The market resolves according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB National League Central division. If there is a tie, the official winner per MLB rules will decide; should multiple winners be announced, the team whose nickname comes first alphabetically takes the market. If a listed team is eliminated from contention, its contract resolves to 'No'. If the regular season is cancelled or no winner is declared by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The primary resolution source is official MLB information, with credible reporting as a fallback. Factors that could shift the odds include the resolution deadline of Oct 11, 2026, the stipulation that no winner declared after October 31, 2026 results in 'Other', and the reliance on official MLB rulings.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the team that wins the 2026 NL Central division according to MLB rules.
What happens if there is a tie?
The official winner as determined by MLB rules is used; if multiple winners are announced, the team with the alphabetically first nickname wins.
What if the season is cancelled?
If the 2026 regular season is cancelled or no winner is declared by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".
What does "Other" mean?
"Other" is the outcome if no official champion is named within the specified timeframe, such as a cancellation.
When is the final resolution deadline?
The latest a winner can be declared for the market to resolve to a team is October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice