Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.4% to 96.6% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
2026 NL West Champion: Dodgers' Market Probability
Markets price the Los Angeles Dodgers as near-certain to claim the 2026 NL West title, with a 98.9% chance. The contract last updated 3 min ago.
98.9%+0.5 pts 24h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title?
Updated · Volume $36.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? | 98.9% | +0.5 |
| Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title? | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 NL West title? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will another team win the 2026 NL West title? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 NL West title? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 NL West title? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers dominate the market, while the other potential winners remain long shots.
Context
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 98.2% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 94.9% to 96.1% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
The Los Angeles Dodgers contract currently trades at 98.9%. The line has hovered in near-certain territory, with any fluctuations measured in mere points. This market settles according to the winner of the 2026 MLB National League West division. Ties are broken by official MLB rules; if multiple winners are declared, the team whose nickname comes first alphabetically takes the contract. Any team that becomes mathematically eliminated resolves to 'No'. Should the 2026 regular season be cancelled or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if no champion is declared by then, the market resolves to 'Other'. The primary resolution source is official MLB information, though credible reporting may also be used. The main driver that could shift the probability is a formal change to the season’s structure or a surprise elimination scenario—both of which seem distant given the current pricing. Official MLB announcements remain the ultimate triggering events for settlement.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the team that wins the 2026 MLB National League West division, as determined by official MLB rules.
What happens if there is a tie for the division title?
The market uses the official winner determined by MLB tiebreaking rules. If multiple winners are announced, it resolves to the team whose nickname comes first alphabetically.
What if the 2026 season is cancelled or postponed?
If no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Which source is used to confirm the winner?
The primary source is official information from MLB (mlb.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When must the division champion be decided?
The winner must be declared by the end of the 2026 regular season, or by the deadline of October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise the market settles to 'Other'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice