Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 100.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
MLB 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Odds & Probability
The chance that the Washington Nationals surpass 68.5 wins this season stands at 100.0%, making it near-certain. Data updated 9 min ago.
48.5%+15.0 pts 24h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
Updated · Volume $139.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the San Diego Padres win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Washington Nationals win more than 68.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win more than 67.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win more than 82.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win more than 75.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | +1.9 |
| Will the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 100.0% | +4.0 |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win more than 75.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 99.6% | +4.1 |
| Will the Miami Marlins win more than 74.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 97.8% | +0.3 |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 97.0% | +0.7 |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win more than 90.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 95.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 94.5% | +0.5 |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win more than 85.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 74.0% | -1.5 |
| Will the Houston Astros win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 73.0% | +5.5 |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win more than 87.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 72.0% | -2.0 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 48.5% | +15.0 |
| Will the Texas Rangers win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 43.0% | +2.5 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win more than 83.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 10.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 7.5% | -0.2 |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Colorado Rockies win more than 65.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 1.4% | +0.1 |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Will the New York Mets win more than 89.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win more than 88.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win more than 82.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Athletics win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Los Angeles Angels win more than 72.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win more than 85.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The over on the Nationals’ win total is near-certain, while the other team win totals shown cover a range from near-certain to coin-flip outcomes, with none carrying the same degree of market conviction.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 98.6% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 99.1% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 91.3% to 99.0% — a 7.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 93.0% to 98.7% — a 5.6-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 93.7% to 98.7% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 94.1% to 98.9% — a 4.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 91.3% to 98.0% — a 6.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 91.5% to 98.3% — a 6.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 91.3% to 99.0% — a 7.7-point move over the past day.
Currently at 100.0%, the headline probability has held near the top of its range. It has traded between 20.5% and 60.0% since the market opened. Over the past day, it moved +15.0 pts. For the headlined market, if the Washington Nationals finish the 2026 regular season with more than 68.5 wins, the market resolves to Over; otherwise, it resolves to Under. Should it become statistically impossible for the team to exceed that win total at any point, the market settles to Under immediately. If the season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed beyond November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, all these markets resolve to 50-50. Resolution relies on official MLB standings, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback. The main date to watch is the conclusion of the regular season Oct 5, 2026, when the final win total is known. The probability could also shift sharply if the Nationals are mathematically eliminated from reaching 68.5 wins before then, triggering an early Under resolution. A sustained league-wide disruption that threatens the season would push the number toward the 50-50 contingency.
FAQ
How is 'more than' defined for these markets?
The market settles based on whether the team's final win total is strictly greater than the listed number. A tie with the number resolves to Under.
What happens if the season is shortened?
If the season is cancelled or not completed by the specified deadline, the market resolves to 50-50.
Can these markets resolve before the season ends?
Yes, if it becomes statistically impossible for a team to go over its win total, the market resolves to Under immediately.
What is the resolution source?
Official MLB standings are the primary source. A consensus of credible reporting may be used if necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice