Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 54.9% to 75.3% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Will Venable Win 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets price Will Venable's chances at 75.8% for the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award, with Kevin Cash the only other manager seen as a meaningful contender.
75.8%+0.8 pts 24h
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Updated · Volume $60.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 75.8% | +0.8 |
| Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 15.2% | +0.5 |
| Will Stephen Vogt win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Derek Shelton win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 2.1% | +0.9 |
| Will Skip Schumaker win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dan Wilson win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Craig Albernaz win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Will John Schneider win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Alex Cora win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Aaron Boone win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Joe Espada win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will A.J. Hinch win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Kurt Suzuki win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mark Kotsay win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Matt Quatraro win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager C win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager E win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager D win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager B win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager A win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Markets see Venable as a tossup—close to a coin flip—while Cash is a substantial minority view; the other managers are all long shots.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 70.6% to 54.9% — a 15.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 77.4% to 67.0% — a 10.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 62.7% to 76.0% — a 13.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 76.3% to 62.7% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 75.4% to 62.2% — a 13.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 61.8% to 75.4% — a 13.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 58.3% to 62.5% — a 4.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.9% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 56.3% to 64.5% — a 8.2-point move over the past day.
Venable's implied probability sits at 75.8%, having traded between 22.4% and 76.3% in recent weeks.. The market resolves to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award. If two managers tie, official MLB tiebreaking rules decide the winner. Should multiple winners be announced, the market settles on the manager whose last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed past December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared by then, the market resolves to “Other”. The resolution source is official MLB information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The market’s valuation will shift as the season progresses and the award announcement approaches. The resolution deadline is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; if no winner is declared by that time, the contract resolves to “Other”. Official MLB announcements or credible reporting consensus will settle the outcome.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award, as announced by Major League Baseball or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if the season is cancelled?
If the 2026 season is cancelled or no winner is declared by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other”.
What if multiple winners are declared?
In the case of multiple award winners, the market resolves to the manager whose last name comes first alphabetically.
When will the award be announced?
The award is typically announced after the regular season, but no specific date is guaranteed; the market's resolution deadline is December 31, 2026.
Who decides tiebreakers?
Tiebreaker rules follow official MLB policy, as determined by the league.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice