MLB: 2026 ERA Leader Odds & Probability
Shohei Ohtani has 13.0% odds to lead the majors in ERA for the 2026 regular season, as of 8 min ago.
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
Updated · Volume $1.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 13.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 6.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Paul Skenes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 4.3% | +0.1 |
| Will Eduardo Rodriguez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 4.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Max Fried lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 3.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 3.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 2.9% | +0.7 |
| Will Garrett Crochet lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 2.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Taj Bradley lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 1.7% | — |
| Will José Soriano lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Michael Wacha lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 1.3% | — |
| Will Bryan Woo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Bryce Elder lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Seth Lugo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Logan Webb lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Reynaldo López lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Brayan Bello lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Dylan Cease lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Connelly Early lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Matthew Boyd lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Nolan McLean lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Carmen Mlodzinski lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Nick Pivetta lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Freddy Peralta lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Chad Patrick lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Merrill Kelly lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Gavin Williams lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Clay Holmes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Jacob deGrom lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Joe Ryan lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Emerson Hancock lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Carlos Rodón lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Player H lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AT lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player D lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player M lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player V lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AH lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player P lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AF lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AB lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will someone else lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player F lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AD lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AS lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AQ lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player X lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AJ lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player L lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player J lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player K lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AC lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AK lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AV lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player G lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player N lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player O lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Q lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player U lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AA lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Y lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AG lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AN lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AR lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AP lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player R lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player E lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player W lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AO lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AU lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AX lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AM lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player C lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player T lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player A lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player B lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AI lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player S lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Z lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AL lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AW lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AE lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player I lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
Shohei Ohtani is the focus of the market; all other pitchers are distant possibilities, with none holding more than an outside chance.
Context
Ohtani’s probability currently sits at 13.0%. Over the last day, the price moved by 0.0 pts; Total volume has reached $1.7M. The market resolves to the pitcher with the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie occurs, the official league leader per MLB rules is used; if multiple leaders are named, the tiebreak sequence is more innings pitched, then more strikeouts, then fewer walks, and finally alphabetical order by last name. Should the regular season be cancelled, postponed past October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader declared by then, the market resolves to “Other”. The resolution source is official MLB data, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback. The resolution date is Sep 28, 2026. The primary trigger for price movement is the 2026 regular season schedule; as the season progresses, probability will shift based on pitcher performance relative to the ERA qualification requirements. The final settlement deadline of October 15, 2026, also looms as a condition that could force “Other” if no leader is determined.
FAQ
How is the ERA leader determined?
The market uses the official ERA statistic from MLB for pitchers who qualify during the 2026 regular season.
What happens if two pitchers tie in ERA?
The tie is broken first by the official MLB leader designation; if multiple leaders are announced, the pitcher with more innings pitched wins. If still tied, more strikeouts breaks the tie, then fewer walks, and finally alphabetical order by last name.
What if the 2026 season is interrupted or cancelled?
If the season is cancelled, postponed past the deadline, or no official leader is declared by October 15, 2026, the market resolves to “Other”.
Where does the resolution data come from?
The primary source is official MLB statistics; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if needed.
When does the market settle?
It settles after the 2026 regular season concludes and an official ERA leader is determined, by the deadline of October 15, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice