ChanceIndex

2026 MLB Home Runs Leader: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season at 84.5%.

84.5%+1.5 pts 24h

Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Updated · Volume $3.2M

22%46%70%94%Aug 17Aug 24Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?84.5%+1.5
Will Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?4.0%-0.8
Will Matt Olson hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.9%-0.6
Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.9%0.0
Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.7%0.0
Will Ben Rice hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.3%0.0
Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.2%0.0
Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Mike Trout hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%-0.1
Will Elly De La Cruz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Manny Machado hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will James Wood hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Eugenio Suarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Shea Langeliers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Sal Stewart hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Pete Alonso hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will George Springer hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Rafael Devers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Cal Raleigh hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Jordan Walker hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Giancarlo Stanton hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Nick Kurtz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Player AN hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player N hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player B hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player A hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AC hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AG hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AL hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player T hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AW hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player M hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BS hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player L hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player O hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player Z hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player Y hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AQ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AT hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BG hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BI hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BM hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BT hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BV hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will someone else hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AF hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AZ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BA hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BC hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AX hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BU hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BR hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AR hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player J hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BW hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AS hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player D hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player W hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AU hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player U hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BQ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AB hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AE hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BL hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BB hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AI hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player F hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AM hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player X hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AD hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player Q hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BX hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BJ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AO hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player R hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player S hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AK hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AP hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player E hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AA hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BH hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AV hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AY hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AH hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player C hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player H hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BN hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BO hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BD hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player P hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player V hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player I hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player K hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player G hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AJ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BE hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BF hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BP hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player BK hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 98.2% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 15, 2026

Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 11, 2026

Probability rose from 73.5% to 81.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 10, 2026

Probability rose from 69.5% to 79.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 10, 2026

Probability rose from 69.5% to 80.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability rose from 58.5% to 77.0% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 7, 2026

Probability rose from 58.5% to 73.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability fell from 71.0% to 58.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 4, 2026

Probability fell from 62.0% to 53.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 3, 2026

Probability fell from 76.0% to 62.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 2, 2026

Probability rose from 62.0% to 76.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 102 tracked outcomes and $3.2M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season, is priced at 84.5%.

Related events

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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