Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 56.0% to 69.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
2026 MLB Home Runs Leader: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season at 66.5%.
66.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Updated · Volume $3.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 66.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 10.3% | -0.4 |
| Will Matt Olson hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 8.6% | +0.0 |
| Will Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 7.9% | +0.8 |
| Will Ben Rice hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 5.6% | +1.9 |
| Will James Wood hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 3.4% | +1.1 |
| Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 1.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Rafael Devers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Pete Alonso hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.5% | -0.0 |
| Will Elly De La Cruz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Will Mike Trout hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Sal Stewart hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Jordan Walker hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Nick Kurtz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will George Springer hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Manny Machado hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Giancarlo Stanton hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cal Raleigh hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eugenio Suarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Shea Langeliers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player V hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player I hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player K hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BK hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player G hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AJ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AI hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BS hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AN hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player N hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player B hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player A hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AC hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AG hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AL hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AM hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AW hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BJ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player M hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player F hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player L hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Z hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Y hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AF hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AQ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AT hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BG hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BI hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BM hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BT hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BV hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BL hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AZ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BA hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BB hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BC hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AX hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BU hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BR hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AR hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player J hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BW hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AS hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player D hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player W hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AU hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player U hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BQ hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player E hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AB hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AE hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AA hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AK hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AP hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BH hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player X hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AD hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AH hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AO hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BX hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AV hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AY hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player C hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player H hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BE hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BF hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BD hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BN hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BO hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player BP hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 92.2% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 63.0% to 56.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 63.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 35.0% to 57.5% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 34.5% to 49.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 42.9% — a 38.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 13.1% to 41.3% — a 28.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 36.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 42.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 39.7% — a 22.2-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 102 tracked outcomes and $3.1M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season, is priced at 66.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice