Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 76.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
MLB: Next Red Sox Manager Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Chad Tracy's chances of becoming the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox at 74.0%, a level traders view as the favored outcome. The market resolves immediately if a permanent appointment is announced.
74.0%-1.5 pts 24h
Will Chad Tracy be the next Red Sox manager?
Updated · Volume $611.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Chad Tracy be the next Red Sox manager? | 74.0% | -1.5 |
| Will Andrew Bailey be the next Red Sox manager? | 4.2% | +0.1 |
| Will David Ross be the next Red Sox manager? | 3.4% | -0.8 |
| Will Rocco Baldelli be the next Red Sox manager? | 3.4% | +0.5 |
| Will Walker McKinven be the next Red Sox manager? | 3.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Daniel Descalso be the next Red Sox manager? | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Omar López be the next Red Sox manager? | 3.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Jason Varitek be the next Red Sox manager? | 2.2% | +0.6 |
| Will George Lombard be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Nomar Garciaparra be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.2% | +0.1 |
| Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will David Ortiz be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.1% | -0.2 |
| Will Dustin Pedroia be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brandon Hyde be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Alex Rodriguez be the next Red Sox manager? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Morgan Ensberg be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Ryan Flaherty be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Will JD Martinez be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will A.J. Ellis be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager T be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager L be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager O be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager G be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager H be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager J be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager I be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager B be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager D be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager S be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager N be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager E be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager C be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager R be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager K be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager Q be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager F be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager M be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager P be the next Red Sox manager? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Chad Tracy occupies the top spot, with the market describing his odds as the favored outcome. The rest of the field remains priced at extremely low levels, highlighting the market's focus on a single frontrunner.
Context
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 77.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 77.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 82.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 69.5% to 83.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 52.0% to 67.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 53.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 70.5% to 52.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 57.0% to 68.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 57.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
The Boston Red Sox are in the market for a new permanent manager, and prediction markets are coalescing around one name. As things stand, Chad Tracy is given a 74.0% probability of landing the job, which traders characterize as the favored outcome. That means the market sees the race as far from settled; a wide field of alternatives still collectively accounts for a substantial share of the probability. The market's resolution mechanics are strict: only a permanent appointment counts. An interim or caretaker manager will not trigger settlement. If no permanent manager is named by Feb 1, 2027, the contract resolves to “Other.” An official announcement from the Red Sox—or a consensus of credible reporting—settles the market immediately, regardless of when the appointment takes effect. Trading volume for this market sits at $611.7K. The probability has ranged from 65.5% to 88.0% in recent trading. The remaining 11 candidates tracked by the market have barely registered, all trading at negligible probabilities. That distribution underscores the market's focus on Tracy, even if his lead is not commanding.
FAQ
What event is this market predicting?
It predicts who will be hired as the next permanent manager of the Boston Red Sox. Only a permanent appointment counts; interim or caretaker managers are ignored.
How does the market resolve?
The market resolves immediately upon an official announcement by the Red Sox or a consensus of credible reporting. If no permanent manager is appointed by Feb 1, 2027, it settles as “Other.”
What counts as a permanent manager?
An official appointment by the Boston Red Sox, not an interim or caretaker role. The market sources from team announcements and credible reporting.
How is Chad Tracy’s probability determined?
It reflects the collective judgment of traders on the prediction market, based on available information and expectations about the Red Sox’s decision.
Why are other candidates not showing high probabilities?
Because traders currently view Chad Tracy as the most likely hire. The remaining field includes numerous other names, but none has attracted significant market support.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice