Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 81.4% to 77.8% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
2026 NL Manager of the Year: Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets price Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year at 78.1%.
78.1%-3.9 pts 24h
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
Updated · Volume $176.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 78.1% | -3.9 |
| Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 19.5% | +6.0 |
| Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 1.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Torey Lovullo win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.9% | -0.9 |
| Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.6% | -0.0 |
| Will Andy Green win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.6% | +0.6 |
| Will Don Mattingly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.6% | +0.6 |
| Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Terry Francona win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tony Vitello win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Warren Schaeffer win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager E win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager D win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Manager C win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 96.2% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 81.4% — a 4.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 66.3% to 76.3% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 58.8% to 69.4% — a 10.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 62.4% — a 4.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 43.3% to 54.4% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 40.8% to 58.8% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 43.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 41.1% to 38.8% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.1% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $176.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year, is priced at 78.1%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice