2026 NL Manager of the Year: Prediction Market Odds

Prediction markets price Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year at 64.0%.

64.0%+5.3 pts 24h

Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

Updated · Volume $168.7K

11%31%52%72%Aug 17Aug 24Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?64.0%+5.3
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?28.0%+1.0
Will Torey Lovullo win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?4.5%-0.9
Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?1.4%-1.0
Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?1.4%+0.1
Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?1.1%-0.1
Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.9%-0.0
Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.6%-0.3
Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.5%-0.0
Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.5%0.0
Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.2%0.0
Will Terry Francona win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.2%0.0
Will Tony Vitello win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will Warren Schaeffer win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will Manager E win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager C win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager A win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager D win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager B win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will someone else win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 95.8% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 15, 2026

Probability rose from 58.0% to 62.4% — a 4.4-point move over the past day.

Sep 10, 2026

Probability rose from 43.3% to 54.4% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 9, 2026

Probability rose from 40.8% to 58.8% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 8, 2026

Probability rose from 39.0% to 43.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability fell from 41.1% to 38.8% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 6, 2026

Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.1% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability rose from 36.1% to 52.1% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 4, 2026

Probability rose from 22.1% to 34.8% — a 12.7-point move over the past day.

Sep 1, 2026

Probability rose from 19.0% to 31.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 1, 2026

Probability rose from 18.7% to 28.0% — a 9.3-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $168.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year, is priced at 64.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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