2026 NL Manager of the Year: Prediction Market Odds

Prediction markets price Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year at 78.1%.

78.1%-3.9 pts 24h

Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

Updated · Volume $176.6K

8%36%64%92%Aug 24Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?78.1%-3.9
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?19.5%+6.0
Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?1.6%+0.1
Will Torey Lovullo win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.9%-0.9
Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.8%0.0
Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.7%0.0
Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.6%-0.0
Will Andy Green win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.6%+0.6
Will Don Mattingly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.6%+0.6
Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.4%-0.1
Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.3%0.0
Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.2%0.0
Will Terry Francona win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.2%0.0
Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will Tony Vitello win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will Warren Schaeffer win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.1%0.0
Will someone else win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager E win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager D win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0
Will Manager C win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 96.2% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 22, 2026

Probability fell from 81.4% to 77.8% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.

Sep 21, 2026

Probability rose from 77.0% to 81.4% — a 4.4-point move over the past day.

Sep 19, 2026

Probability rose from 66.3% to 76.3% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.

Sep 16, 2026

Probability rose from 58.8% to 69.4% — a 10.6-point move over the past day.

Sep 15, 2026

Probability rose from 58.0% to 62.4% — a 4.4-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 10, 2026

Probability rose from 43.3% to 54.4% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 9, 2026

Probability rose from 40.8% to 58.8% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 8, 2026

Probability rose from 39.0% to 43.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability fell from 41.1% to 38.8% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.

Sep 6, 2026

Probability rose from 37.0% to 41.1% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $176.6K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year, is priced at 78.1%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

Embed this widget
TypeTheme

Free to use. Please keep the “ChanceIndex” attribution. It updates itself — no scripts, no cookies.