Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 1.4% to 3.0% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
MLB Runs Leader: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Fernando Tatis Jr. will finish atop the 2026 runs leaderboard at 3.5%, making the race a a long shot affair. Other players barely register.
3.5%-0.3 pts 24h
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?
Updated · Volume $1.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 3.5% | -0.3 |
| Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Ben Rice lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will José Ramírez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.5% | +0.0 |
| Will Zach Neto lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will José Bell lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Byron Buxton lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Luke Wood lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Julio Rodríguez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Francisco Lindor lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Corbin Carroll lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Dansby Swanson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Brett Turang lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Mike Trout lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Mookie Betts lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Randy Arozarena lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will George Springer lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Elly De La Cruz lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jose Altuve lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AA lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AD lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AH lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AI lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AN lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player A lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Z lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AJ lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AL lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player L lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player N lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player J lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player M lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player V lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AF lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player F lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player X lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AG lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player H lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player D lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player I lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player C lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player K lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AE lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AK lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AM lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player B lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player E lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player G lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AB lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Y lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AC lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player U lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player W lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the clear focus of the market; all other players are considered long shots.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.6% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.3% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 3.4% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 3.2% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 3.0% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.2% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 1.4% to 3.2% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 3.1% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
The figure has fluctuated between 1.4% and 9.5%. Over the last day, the market moved -0.3 pts;. The market resolves based on the official MLB leader in runs for the 2026 regular season. A tie is first broken by on-base percentage, then batting average, then total hits, and finally alphabetical order of last name. If the season is cancelled or no official leader is declared by October 15, 2026, the market settles as "Other". Resolution will follow official MLB information or, if needed, a consensus of credible reporting. The only formal trigger that could shift the probability is the progression of the regular season toward the resolution date of Sep 28, 2026, when the official leader must be determined. The market's focus will narrow as the season advances, with statistics from MLB games and standings serving as the primary inputs.
FAQ
How does the market handle a tie in runs scored?
If multiple players end with the same run total, the tie is broken by on-base percentage, then batting average, then hits, and finally by the alphabetical order of the player’s last name.
What happens if the 2026 MLB season is cancelled?
If the regular season is cancelled or no official leader is declared by October 15, 2026, the market resolves to "Other".
Who verifies the official runs leader?
Resolution relies on official MLB data; if that is unclear, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
When will this market be settled?
Once the 2026 regular season concludes and the official leader is announced, or by the deadline of October 15, 2026, whichever comes first.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice