MLB: Runs Leader — Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Shohei Ohtani a 10.3% shot at topping the runs chart in the 2026 MLB regular season, unlikely.
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?
Updated · Volume $1.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 10.3% | -0.6 |
| Will Ben Rice lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 5.8% | -0.4 |
| Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 3.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 2.4% | 0.0 |
| Will José Ramírez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Will Corbin Carroll lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.5% | -0.0 |
| Will Zach Neto lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will José Bell lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Byron Buxton lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 1.0% | — |
| Will Dansby Swanson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Francisco Lindor lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Luke Wood lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Julio Rodríguez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will Randy Arozarena lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.7% | — |
| Will George Springer lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.6% | — |
| Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Mookie Betts lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Brett Turang lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Mike Trout lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Elly De La Cruz lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jose Altuve lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Player Y lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player G lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player K lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player N lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AJ lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player C lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player F lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player P lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AF lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AM lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AN lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player R lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player E lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player T lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player U lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AB lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AC lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player I lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Q lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player J lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player O lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player Z lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player S lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AD lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AG lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AI lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AL lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player V lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player M lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AE lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AH lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AA lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player B lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player H lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player W lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player AK lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player D lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player L lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will someone else lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player A lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Player X lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | 0.0% | — |
Shohei Ohtani’s chances are seen as unlikely, while the rest of the field are extreme long shots.
Context
The market has priced Ohtani at 10.3% after moving -0.6 pts over the past day. Over the period tracked, it has fluctuated between 3.5% and 24.5%. This market resolves to the player scoring the most runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In a tie, it follows the official leader determined by MLB rules. If multiple leaders are announced, the winner is the one with the higher on-base percentage, then batting average, then hits, and finally alphabetical order by last name. Should the season be cancelled or postponed past October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as “Other.” The resolution source is official MLB data, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting if needed. Movement hinges on formal milestones: the resolution deadline of Sep 28, 2026, the progress of the 2026 regular season, and the accumulation of runs by the leading candidates. Every game shifts the probability as the leaderboard updates, with no single event carrying disproportionate weight.
FAQ
How does the market handle a tie for most runs?
It first defers to the official MLB leader. If the league names co-leaders, the market uses on-base percentage, then batting average, then hits, and finally alphabetical order by last name as successive tie-breakers.
What happens if the season is shortened or cancelled?
If the regular season is cancelled or postponed beyond October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.” If an official leader is declared before that cutoff, the market follows that result.
Which games count toward the total?
Only runs scored in 2026 regular season games, as recorded by MLB, are considered. Postseason runs are excluded.
Where does the resolution data come from?
The primary source is official MLB information. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official data is unavailable.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice