MLB Stolen Bases Leader 2026: Odds & Probability

This prediction market asks who will lead Major League Baseball in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season. The resolution relies on official MLB statistics, with a series of tiebreakers if needed: fewest caught stealings, then highest on-base percentage, then most total bases, and finally alphabetical order by last name. If the season is canceled or no leader is declared by October 15, 2026, the market settles on “Other.”

At present, Nasim Nuñez is the front-runner, with betting markets pricing his probability at 52.8%. The contract has traded as high as 57.8% and as low as 1.2%. His position as close to a coin flip reflects a consensus that he has a strong chance, though the remaining contenders collectively capture the rest of the probability. These odds were last updated 2 min ago. The total volume traded on this contract is $682.1K. Stolen base totals can swing dramatically based on health, playing time, and team strategy, so even a close to a coin flip carries no guarantee. The market’s assessment will evolve as news and performance data emerge over the course of the pre-season and the regular season. The rest of the leaderboard consists of a long list of position players, but none of them are given more than an outside shot by the market. The tail of the distribution includes over a dozen names, all viewed as long shots.