MLB Stolen Bases Leader 2026: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets give Nasim Nuñez a 76.5% chance of finishing with the most stolen bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. The contract has seen $676.3K in trading volume and prices him as the favored outcome to lead the league.

76.5%-11.0 pts 24h

Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?

Updated · Volume $676.3K

34%55%76%97%Aug 12Aug 20Aug 27Sep 4Sep 11
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?76.5%-11.0
Will Chandler Simpson lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?15.0%+9.5
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?8.1%+1.9
Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?2.6%-2.9
Will Randy Arozarena lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?1.8%+0.1
Will CJ Abrams lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?1.4%+0.3
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.9%+0.1
Will David Hamilton lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.5%0.0
Will José Caballero lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.5%0.0
Will Jakob Marsee lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.4%0.0
Will Oneil Cruz lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.3%0.0
Will Corbin Carroll lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.3%0.0
Will Jake McCarthy lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.3%0.0
Will José Ramírez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.2%0.0
Will Brice Turang lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.2%0.0
Will Carson Benge lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Brenton Doyle lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Luis Robert Jr. lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Elly De La Cruz lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Geraldo Perdomo lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Josh Naylor lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Luisangel Acuña lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Trea Turner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Francisco Lindor lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Trevor Story lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Victor Scott II lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.1%0.0
Will Player A lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AA lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AL lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player Q lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AI lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AE lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player L lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will someone else lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AP lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player V lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player Z lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player N lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player P lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AC lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player S lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player D lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player I lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player G lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AD lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AJ lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AW lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player F lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AR lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AF lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player K lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player O lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player W lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player R lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AT lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player J lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player Y lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AM lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AQ lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player C lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AG lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AN lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AU lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AO lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player E lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player T lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player X lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AB lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AH lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AX lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AS lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AV lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player AK lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player B lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player M lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player H lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0
Will Player U lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?0.0%0.0

Nasim Nuñez is the clear favorite. Pete Crow-Armstrong is seen as unlikely to lead the league, while Bobby Witt Jr. holds a similar unlikely chance.

Context

Sep 11, 2026

Probability fell from 87.5% to 74.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 10, 2026

Probability rose from 74.0% to 83.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 8, 2026

Probability rose from 52.0% to 73.5% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability rose from 56.0% to 73.5% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability rose from 64.5% to 77.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 2, 2026

Probability rose from 52.5% to 64.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 1, 2026

Probability fell from 68.0% to 51.0% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 1, 2026

Probability rose from 16.6% to 47.3% — a 30.7-point move over the past day.

Aug 31, 2026

Probability fell from 77.0% to 52.0% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 30, 2026

Probability fell from 79.5% to 49.5% — a 30.0-point move over the past day.

This prediction market asks who will lead Major League Baseball in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season. The resolution relies on official MLB statistics, with a series of tiebreakers if needed: fewest caught stealings, then highest on-base percentage, then most total bases, and finally alphabetical order by last name. If the season is canceled or no leader is declared by October 15, 2026, the market settles on “Other.”

At present, Nasim Nuñez is the front-runner, with betting markets pricing his probability at 76.5%. The contract has traded as high as 89.5% and as low as 41.0%. His position as the favored outcome reflects a consensus that he has a strong chance, though the remaining contenders collectively capture the rest of the probability. These odds were last updated 2 min ago. The total volume traded on this contract is $676.3K. Stolen base totals can swing dramatically based on health, playing time, and team strategy, so even a the favored outcome carries no guarantee. The market’s assessment will evolve as news and performance data emerge over the course of the pre-season and the regular season. The rest of the leaderboard consists of a long list of position players, but none of them are given more than an outside shot by the market. The tail of the distribution includes over a dozen names, all viewed as long shots.

FAQ

How is this market resolved?

It resolves to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 MLB regular season, as determined by official MLB statistics. In case of a tie, a series of tiebreakers are applied: fewest caught stealings, highest on-base percentage, most total bases, and finally alphabetical order by last name.

What happens if the 2026 season is cancelled?

If the regular season is cancelled or no official leader is declared by October 15, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.”

Who is the current favorite to lead MLB in stolen bases?

As of 2 min ago, Nasim Nuñez is the favorite with a probability of 76.5%.

Where does the resolution data come from?

The primary source is official information from MLB. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

How are ties broken if multiple players have the same number of stolen bases?

The tiebreaker order is: 1) fewest caught stealings, 2) higher on-base percentage, 3) more total bases, 4) player with last name first alphabetically.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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